Autumn has come and gone. Winter. Spring. All gone.
But at least now we have the Hollywood trailer for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.
Summer? Anyone?
For months now, Ukraine has been preparing a ‘fist’ of new units, armed with the very latest in shiny new NATO toys. According to the leaked Pentagon information, bean-counted and analysed by Big Serge…
All told, the combat power build calls for these brigades to field a total of 253 tanks, 381 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 480 Armored Personnel Carriers, and 147 artillery pieces. This implies that these will be brigades in name only, and will in fact be far understrength. Parceling these systems out across nine brigades will give an average strength of a mere 28 tanks per brigade, along with some 95 IFVs/APCs and 16 artillery tubes. Compare this to a US Army Armored Brigade Combat Team, which would have almost 90 tanks and almost 200 IFVs/APCs. An American Stryker Brigade (a lighter, rapidly deployable formation) would have about 300 Strykers – the Ukrainian 82nd Brigade is listed to receive only 90.
In combat power terms, therefore, these new brigades are going to be far understrength. Their tank strength, far from being full brigade level, amounts to less than an American armored battalion.
These nine new brigades, alongside three more formations equipped with whatever remains of the (predominantly) ex-Soviet equipment Ukraine began with, have been – for months – battered by Russian drone, missile, bomb and artillery strikes wherever the Russians have spotted and identified them… whether in-transit, in force-concentration areas, or in terms of command facilities, supply and ammunition dumps. Before they have fired a single, solitary shot.
Kiev (and her western ‘partners’) have given date after date after date as to when Schrödinger’s Offensive will start. I have my doubts that any offensive will be undertaken.
I have my doubts that even if an offensive should start, there is sufficient force to make any impact on the outcome of this conflict… or achieve anything more than transient, headline-grabbing success.
Once used, this force will be spent. There will be nothing left with which Ukraine can mount an offensive.
Population of combatants. Kill ratio. Unavoidable maths.
So then what?
NATO Article 5 involvement. Poland comes in with boots on the ground, perhaps. Ukrainian negotiations. Who knows.